Irresponsible, half-baked, boxing takes: That's definitely a concussion
Canelo, Verdejo v. Nakatani, Shakur Stevenson, Colbert, and Anthony Joshua
Another week, another set of bad boxing takes. Since Nakatani upset Verdejo last week I am now 3 for 3:
Irresponsible prediction tally: 3 - 0
Still undefeated and still, my own personal hype-train chugs along (unlike Verdejo’s, yikes). I already locked in my Canelo v. Smith pick last week, so we’ll see tonight how that turns out.
I’m also looking forward to seeing Jaron Ennis take another step up in competition, but I didn’t feel like the match up required a prediction or its own section. So besides Canelo, no other picks this weekend.
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Quick note on Canelo v. Callum Smith
A boxing podcast I like titled their last episode “Canelo faces the tallest challenge of his career.”
There’s something so hilarious and dismissive about calling it that. Boxing journalists and pundits have been calling Callum Smith Canelo’s “toughest,” or “biggest,” challenge to date because he is, you know, “large” and “intimidating,” and definitely a “threat.” “Tallest” just brings up images of Gumby. It’s cheeky. I love it, and it gets at British boxing’s long legacy of overhyping their fighters only to have them get smashed when they starting competing on the world stage.
That being said, I’m starting to feel more and more, as we get closer to the fight, that Canelo might actually get the stoppage here. Look out for those body shots, Callum.
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Verdejo v. Nakatani
The prediction was right, but boy… was I wrong about how. That was painful to watch, it went into “stopped being enjoyable” territory that boxing occasionally goes to every now and then (then again, my threshold for this might be a little higher than most).
The Verdejo hype-train has come to a screeching halt once again, in EMPHATIC fashion. This looked a bit like his knockout loss to Lozada, just redux.
The problem is that, this time he actually looked pretty incredible the first 5 rounds. He floored Nakatani twice, who had never been knocked down before. Nakatani, and I say this with complete seriousness, might have one of the hardest chins in boxing today (a hard “chin” means you take a punch well). I’m convinced Verdejo wouldn’t have done any better with a baseball bat, he was throwing some bombs that were landing at will. Let’s all agree, from now on, that Nakatani just isn’t going to get knocked out by anyone who doesn’t have cement in their gloves. Ok, cool.
Then… the bombs ran out. Verdejo has a reputation for fighting really well for 6 rounds, then gassing out and taking a break for a few, before getting back on the horse and ending the fight with solid work. He did that on Saturday, and, well, he didn’t make it to the “ending the fight” phase.
Verdejo had tired himself out too much to where he couldn’t move around effectively. And Nakatani just. kept. coming. He was walking through gunfire just to land a few shots. It didn’t help that Nakatani also has good power.
So, Nakatani gets to move on to another top lightweight and hopefully get a chance at a belt. He doesn’t have the skills necessary, which we saw in the loss to Teofimo Lopez, to get one, but if a fighter is unable to box well for 10-12 rounds he is gonna terminate them, a la Verdejo. Verdejo on the other hand has to start over, again. I’m skeptical that he’s gonna do that (I read somewhere that Verdejo actually likes baseball more than boxing? Not a good sign).
Here’s the fight boiled down to its simplest form:
Both guys hit very hard. One guy has a chin. One guy doesn’t. The one who didn’t went face first into the canvas.
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Shakur Stevenson and Chris Colbert put on two, completely different, solid performances
Chris Colbert’s old nickname used to be “Lil BHop,” named after all-time great Bernard “BHop” Hopkins. People have always called him that, and I’m gonna continue to call him that (although, I do think his new nickname “primetime” fits him perfectly too).
What a treat to have two of my favorite young fighters on the same night. They aren’t “up and coming” in the sense that they aren’t accomplished (they’ve both already “won” world titles — Shakur the WBO featherweight, and BHop the interim WBA super featherweight). But they are in the sense that their talent far outweighs the accolades they’ve picked up so far. These are, as I’ve said before, two potential pound-for-pound talents that have yet to reach anywhere near their peaks.
And the two masterful performances they put on last Saturday are actually funny little insights into why these two guys are equally talented, but diametrically opposed, fighters and personalities.
Shakur’s greatest skills are his footwork and his “eyes.” He is really, really good at anticipating every shot coming his way and moving accordingly. In addition to having precise footwork that puts him in perfect position, he rarely gets hit. His defense is levels above the competition.
The issue is, he’s coming off as risk-averse. He was really beating up Toka Kahn-Clary last Saturday, but he didn’t seem to go for the kill. He could’ve ended the fight, at multiple spots, if he went for the knockout. In a sport with a small amount of hardcore fans, and few casuals, to become a star and make the real money (which is what all these fighters want) you have to be able to attract fans who don’t watch boxing. You have to find a way to pull people in who are there to watch YOU, not necessarily the boxing.
And what brings people in is excitement, just like any other sport. That’s why, for your long term earnings, it’s very important HOW you win, and not just whether or not you win. If a fight is going to be one-sided, people want to at least see a beatdown, unfortunately. Highlights, and social media, are crucial for this.
What Shakur needs is a big step up in competition, a title shot at Berchelt, Frampton, Herring, Warrington, Valdez — any of those top guys. If he wants the glory, he’s going to have to start taking more risks to get the KO. That’s just how it goes.
BHop, on the other hand, is in no short supply of risk-taking and going for the kill. I mean, just watch the highlights above... In comparing the two, I would say BHop is more physically talented. He’s scary fast and agile.
What the highlights don’t show is that he was actually outboxing Arboleda for about half the fight. Then, inexplicably, he decides to walk Arboleda down with his hands up and wails on him. He even got wobbled at one point. Sometimes it feels like BHop is too talented for his own good.
The Stevenson v. Colbert saga continues. It’s time for them to step up in competition and get a fight where it actually looks like they might lose. They need the test.
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I missed the old Anthony Joshua
I was pleasantly surprised by Anthony Joshua’s performance against Kubrat Pulev this past Saturday. He looked like the Joshua of old: strong, aggressive, risk-taking. Ever since his knockout loss to Andy Ruiz (and the knockdown he took against Wladimir Klitschko) he’s been, for good reason, fighting very cautiously.
But it’s led to some lackluster performances that don’t help his claims for heavyweight supremacy, and he very much wants to be considered the best in the world. He isn’t a Tyson Fury, who can box rings around anyone and not get touched, or Deontay Wilder, knocking people out with one punch and stepping out of harms way.
Joshua is a guy who has always needed to put combinations together to land a shot his opponent doesn’t expect, or to beat down his opponents, to win. That has always meant taking risks, and I hope this fight means he’s realized that fact again.
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Who can beat Canelo?
Last Canelo thought. If the likely outcome happens, I had an interesting thought that Canelo is actually better served moving up in weight, even though he’s undersized.
The only fighters he’s ever had trouble with are good boxers that are good movers. Eventually Canelo will find his limit, someone who’s just too big and strong that he can’t outbox — I think Beterbiev might be that guy. But for the most part, Canelo gets beat by guys who are quick, have great footwork, and who can outclass him.
Those guys tend to be in the lighter divisions (Mayweather, Lara). The bigger he goes, the slower they get, and it looks like his power goes with him.